Making a Prime Minister in Makerfield?
Can election experts predict the UK's next Prime Minister? Beth and Tom explore the data, local politics and the race shaping Westminster's future.
In this episode Beth and Tom are joined by Dr Lotte Hargrave from the University of Manchester to discuss whether psephology - the study of elections and voting behaviour - can predict the next Prime Minister of the UK.
All eyes are turned on the town of Makerfield in Greater Manchester, where Andy Burnham is making a play to win the constituency and head south - back to Westminster, and (probably) a leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer as UK PM.
With Lotte we discuss whether we can predict the results of the election, the potential outcomes of a win for Burnham for the Greater Manchester mayoralty and why hyperlocal factors suggest it is all still to play for.
Also on our radar:
- Whether the UK needs to introduce maximum indoor temperatures for workplaces as urban heat rises
- Rising concern about Ebola in African cities in the shadow of global aid cuts
- Activism and urban organising for domestic workers
- How urbanization is driving the global sand crisis
- The many faces and contradictions of datacentre resistance
- Housing and the World Urban Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan
Guest:
Dr Lotte Hargrave is a Lecturer in Quantitative Political Science at the University of Manchester and a contracted psephologist for the BBC Elections Programme. Her research focuses on political behaviour, public opinion, gender and stereotyping in politics, and electoral politics. Before joining Manchester, she was Head of Data Science at the polling company Deltapoll.
Related Episodes From Our Archives:
Recommended Reading:
- sand_ - — RareEarth - Kate Dawson
- AI Data Centers Are The New Plantations Unless We Build Them Differently - Honolulu Civil Beat
- Building Climate Resilient Housing - World Cities Report
- Late deciders, higher turnout - The Conversation
- Political favourability ratings, May 2026 - YouGov
Credits
- Guest: Dr Lotte Hargrave (Lecturer in Quantitative Political Science at the University of Manchester)
- Podcast Production, Presentation & Editing: Tom Goodfellow (Professor of Urban Studies and International Development at the University of Sheffield)
- Podcast Production, Presentation & Editing: Beth Perry (Professor of Urban Epistemics at the University of Sheffield and Director of the Urban Institute)
- Post-Production Editing & Marketing: Polly Clifton (Student at the University of Sheffield)
- Training & Production Support: Jack Clayton (Creative Media Service Support Adviser at the University of Sheffield)
- Distribution, Promotion and Marketing: Vicky Simpson (Research Manager at the University of Sheffield)
- Podcast Cover: Dan Farley Designs
- Music: Horizon (Music by Tom Goodfellow, Recorded & Produced by Alan Thomson), Falling Down (Music by Tom Goodfellow, Performed by the Dice, Produced by Alan Thomson)
- Special Thanks: Supported by the Faculty of Social Science and the Creative Media Suite at the University of Sheffield